Things Business Organisations Should Do : Post Withdrawal of COVID19 Lock-down

On 1^st October, 2015, I had written a small article on “What if the World Dealt in Cash Only”. Looking back, I think it was meant for these critical times.

The link to the article is :
https://calibrecreators.blogspot.com/2015/01/what-if-world-dealt-in-cash-only.html

Let me clarify here, that by cash, I meant making immediate payment against goods and services just as you would when you buy anything across the counter.

In the aftermath of the Corona Virus pandemic where the global economy has taken a huge hit and whose consequences on every person in the chain is yet uncertain, I find this topic very relevant in today’s scenario and I will tell you why.  I have heard various business experts and economists talk about “Cash is King”.  I think the entire trade and economy cycle should be converted into instant payments system where credit period is minimal.  Only then will the whole business cycle book.  Yes, there may be sectors where credit is required like a Kirana store.  He has to stock-up to sell and till then, he has to invest money.  The amount require is also not small.  This also applies to Large Food chains.  The government should enforce stringent norms for businessmen who default on making payments within the credit period.

As soon as business comes back to normalcy, people would be struggling to re-start their businesses.  In my opinion, it is akin to starting from zero and making a fresh beginning.  It is well known that it will take a long time for the economic activity to pick up momentum and bring smiles again to everyone’s faces.  A separate study on the impact of economy is also on the anvil and hopefully, I will publish it soon.  But that is for later.

Now this article is also like an appeal to most businessmen and there are a few recommendations to the Government that will help the people to overcome the impact of the Corona Lock-down.  I am not an economist nor a financial expert but I bring my experiences and share my knowledge.

To make it simpler, I shall put them in bullet points:

1.    As a seller, do not increase your prices just to take advantage of scarcity or shortage of the product you deal with.  Keep up with honest pricing and I am sure your customer’s will love it.  It is your own countrymen who are been fleeced.  This will not only raise discontentment but you will lose long-term business. They may not come to you again unless you are in a monopolistic situation. 

2.    Also, as a seller, do not try to offload your goods at a huge discount in the hope of raising funds and bringing fresh stock.  People will try and take advantage of the situation and indulge in a lot of bargaining.  Yes, be a little flexible but do not reduce your prices too much.  Lowering your prices in a crisis situation will help people buy little of everything by spreading their thin resources.

3.    You may try to ask for your outstanding dues but we all know that most people have used up most of their working capital to pay their employees, for household expenditures, pay for rents, their EMIs and other routine liabilities.  As much as possible, be polite in your dealings and give them leverage to break-up their payments in small amounts if possible.   They will also require cash to get back on track and it is improper to demand your money.

4.    Do something similar if you have to make your payments.  Do not deny payment but say that you will pay it off over a period of time. Have a humane face.  They also need funds to meet their commitments.

5.    When you receive payment, do not hold it back or hoard it.  Pay up ahead to your suppliers and other people to whom dues are pending.  If you are in trade, gradually build your not but not fully in anticipation of a sudden demand.  Most likely, demand will gradually pick up as money starts rolling in.

6.    As a buyer, do not bargain with your vendor or seller for a few rupees or dollars or any currency.  Just as much as you need the money, he/she too needs the money to bounce back.  Together, we all will need support from each other to get the economy back on track.

7.    Banks will be willing to offer you financial assistance. Be very careful in how you plan because your EMIs will start immediately unless you work on No Credit basis.

8.    If you have taken advance for delivery of goods, do not default or delay the transportation.  Do not compromise on quality or quantity.  Be ethical.

9.    Keep aside a certain portion of your business revenue for contingencies to create a disaster management fund for your business and your family.  The future of business is going to be very uncertain.  New products, new services and new way of doing business will be the norm.

10.   In whatever economic activity you are engaged in, try to rework your business & sales strategy and identify leakages, delays, inefficiencies and try to develop and implement solutions.  Keep tweaking your strategy so that it is in sync with the times and you are not left out wondering why you were left behind.

11.   If you have not paid salaries to your employees in fully, it is very likely that they will ask for advances.  Try to accommodate their request because they also have to feed their families.

12.   On the day you start your business or office, don’t be in a hurry to start selling and finishing up pending tasks.   

Call your entire team, especially if you have a formal organisation for a meeting.  Most companies are doing this with regular conference calls to discuss the strategies.  If there is an HR function, ask them to organise a fun-activity like an ice-breaker or something that will enhancing the bonding. 

Take about one or two hours to hold discussions to take stock of the situation, plan everything.  More importantly, listen to their worries and woes that they are going through.  They will feel better and will find a voice.  In fact, they will be more than happy to express their sentiments.  Show empathy and also share your stories so that they know that you too have problems and have anxieties.  This will help re-build and strengthen relations that may have seen a downward slide.  Do not be in a hurry to talk about business and losses that you have suffered.  They are perhaps well aware of the situation and will have contemplated it over and over.  It is important to re-group, plan, re-strategise and re-organise your work.  

13.    During the lock-in period, you may have got the opportunity to think of new ideas, review your business function, look at best practices.  Now is the time to implement these new ideas which you can discuss with your team.  Get your team to discuss those ideas and get their inputs.  This will be very valuable and also help in building greater employee engagement.

14.    I am very sure that if you have built a good organisation and have good relations, you will not have to tell you employees to stretch themselves to put in extra hours of work.  They might be in a hurry to rush back home but most of them will look forward to completing their work and clear the backlog in return for job security or even otherwise.  In all probability, you will not have to tell or reprimand your team members for such an action. 

15.    Also tell them that salaries will not be affected.  Some highly paid employees may voluntarily offer to take a cut in their compensation so that the company can manage with the resources.  You can certainly pay them back at a later period for the cuts they have taken.  They should not have to forego the amount if the business is back to normal or if  you have not been affected by it.

16.    This is not the right time to tell them that their salary increases or performance bonuses will be affected.  Hopefully, your business will recover quickly well and you may not have to take such a drastic action.  Let’s hope that you do more better than earlier and you don’t have to pay them for their support and good performance.

17.    Also, request your employees to postpone all their casual leaves and annual holidays and I am sure they will reciprocate with an equal measure.  Tell them that this is the time of national calamity and crisis and we must all work to make up for the lost time.

18.    Ask your teams to focus on improving customer service.  This is the key and will give you an edge.

19.    Most customers will have complaints of maintenance or servicing because of no-service during the lock-down period and they must be prioritised and attended to.  During the lock-down period, be proactive.  It would be good if you reach out to your customers to find out they have any breakdowns or require repairs.  Tell them that your servicing team will be reaching out to them separately and soon as things open up.  This will be highly beneficial for your business and people will appreciate that gesture.  It will reduce their stress too.

20.    After this pandemic, people will be very sensitive about cleanliness, hygiene and sanitation.  Therefore, please make sure that you office, or business premises where your customers are attended to, is cleaned and there are no filthy areas.  Pay attention to detail.  Focus not just on your internal premises but try and get your access path or surroundings clean.  The Municipal Corporation workers who have never cleaned them in the past are not likely to do so in the future too.  Let’s extend our help to them.

21.    Keep sanitizers at the exit and all employees must maintain the hygiene standards until we are all out of the blue.

22.    The new normal will create demand for newer products.  It is likely that imports may be affected for short to medium term.  Try to shore up your manufacturing capacity to create new products and phased enhancement of manufacturing capacity.  This will help not only your business planning but help create additional employment and participate in the Make in India programme.  

23.    Since a lot of functions are to be operated form the office like Billing and accounts and other related activities, they could not be completed because it was not put on cloud.  You will have to consider establishing systems through which your employees can continue their operations from the remoteness of their homes.  Remote working will become the norm.

24.    It is expected that the office space requirement will greatly reduce due to the Work From Home system that has come into being and seems to be working well.  Corporates who were uncomfortable with this have tasted it and are already planning to downsize and reduce their outgo’s.  Space and rentals will be one such consideration.

25.    A major and important recommendation which I would like to make to the Government is this.  Immediately after withdrawal of the lock-down, most people will still not have monies in their hands to spend on essential items also. 

I recommend that the salary payment system must be converted to make it every weekend.  This may cause additional strain on the HR and Payroll functions but it will quickly push cash in the hands of a large number of people and will help in normalising the situation earlier than later.  This will also lead to decrease in anxieties faced by employees on account of shortage of cash.  Once they have cash in their hands, they will spend on consumption and this will help the economy to keep rolling. 

Payroll management companies may not have to enhance their capacities while some may need additional support for short time.  They may have to re-negotiate their terms for the adjustment period.

I would however, suggest that we make this a permanent feature and I am sure organisations will be able to cope up with the new system.  I am confident that once the system is streamlined, organisations will happily make this a permanent feature.  Of course, some industry will have their concerns that there will be a high level of employee turnover, especially at the daily wage-earner’s and contract labourers level because they will leave after receiving their weekly pay, affecting the business cycle.  I understand that this cannot be across all industries but I am sure it can be done in many industries and sectors.  We are currently not doing this because we are not used to that system but that is not much of an issue in the West.  Of course, the causes of success in this system are different.  We have a legacy to deal with but can be streamlined over a period of a couple of years.

As a result of this, the supply of goods and their reciprocal payment system will be streamlined and we will move to a limited short-term credit say of 3 to 7 days.  The Government will have to introduce some kind of legislation so that defaulters do not get a fee hand and they have a fear of the law.  This will mean that the government will have to strengthen the judicial machinery to take care of the litigations and complaints.

I wish that everything returns to normal situation and that we continue to follow the lessons learnt from and during the lock-down. 

The word “Corona” will not be forgotten a long time and at least the two generations will talk about just like our generation remembers the two World Wars or the Great Depression.

Best wishes.

Sarfaraz Lakhani

24^th April, 2020.

Spread of COVID-19 and impacts of Lock-down in India on deaths due to non-COVID-19 By Dr. Abu Altamash Faizi (Ph.D.) and Mr. Sarfaraz Lakhani

Image Source: Google COVID19 Map

In December, 2019, pneumonia outbreak was reported in Wuhan city of China. This disease was given a name COVID-19. The Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease which generally infect mammals and birds; but there were only six type that could infect humans before COVID-19. It is the seventh corona virus and the most lethal so far. This disease is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world. The total number of confirmed cases of Corona Virus positive have been 17,71,558 of which 1,08,334 people have died as on 12th April, 2019.

"Viruses aren't considered alive -- in class, I call them pseudo-alive," “They require a host to even begin to function. A virus usually enters the cell through a protein our cells have on their surface. COVID-19 -- and SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome] before that -- use a protein called ACE2, which is on the surface of the cells in our lung, throat and intestinal tract."

"If you don't pass it on, then that virus hits a dead end in its pseudo-life," said Eric Mendenhall, an associate professor of biological sciences at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Doctors believe that the COVID-19 virus spreads primarily through droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose when an infected person coughs or sneezes, thus releasing them in the air. Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness. Death rate by Corona virus globally is 13.9/ 1 million population where as it is 0.3 for India which is very less.

WHO recommends two most important preventive actions are: (1) that Viruses can't spread unless people help them i.e. social distancing or self-quarantine; and (2) people can stop the spread by washing hands frequently for 20 seconds and maintain social distancing of at least 1 metre.

 

Objectives of the Study:

1.   To understand the pattern of spread and countries severely impacted by the Corona Virus (COVID19)
2.   To study the effect of temperature on the spread and incidence in countries affected by Corona Virus
3.   To analyse the Impact of complete lock=down in India on Deaths other than COVID-19.

Methodology:

For the purpose of this study, we have sourced the data from tracker https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. as of 12th of April. 

Death rate is calculated on the basis of Total confirmed case/ Total death. Where as probability of death per hundred COVID-19 positive case are calculated on the basis of total death+ Seriously Critical out of total confirmed cases. We know that some critical patient may be cured with time. Probability of death will always show upper side. It is difficult to calculate current mortality rate because different countries are at different stages of the COVID-19 outbreak and deaths per million population will change with every single deaths.

We have considered multiple variables, causes and factors influencing the spread of the disease and have attempted to understand and arrive at a pattern. We have analysed the data continent wise to see the pattern of incidence in different continent.

To analyze the impact of lock down on other than COVID-19 deaths , only those Diseases have been considered which will increase death due to Corona lock-down.

We have also taken other data from each of the countries who have been largely affected by the Corona Virus, wherever available.

OBJECTIVE-1 : To understand the pattern of spread and countries severely impacted by the Corona Virus (COVID19)

The Corona virus disease has spread in 210 countries and territories. Out of 210 countries 51 countries have no deaths while 55 countries have been reported with deaths (127) within 1-5 range. It means that the pattern of disease spread is very different from other previous virus epidemics. There are 197 countries that fall under the 0-1000 range with a total deaths of 8541 as on 12thApril. On the other hand, there are only 13 countries within the range of 1001 and above and have huge number of deaths with 99793, almost 1 lakh. Most of the deaths have occurred in very developed countries who have high per capita income with better and most advance health facilities. Most of the under developed and developing countries have low incidence of COVID-19 disease. It clearly reflects that some other factors are responsible and playing big role in it. 

As far as total deaths is concerned, Africa has the lowest date ratio at 0.328 per million population, followed by Oceania at 1.148 deaths per million population. Asia which includes China at 1.1884 and 2.451 deaths per million population are in the mid-range. North American Countries are at the second highest 21.984 deaths per million population and the highest number of deaths has been recorded in Europe at 77.285 and this includes the most affected countries like Italy, Spain, France, UK and Belgium. 

Probability of deaths

Data indicates that the probability of death of affected people does not exceed 17%. The highest rate recorded is in Italy (15.01%), Spain (14.74%), France (15.98%), UK (14.48%), Netherland (16.50%) has been in European Union. 

USA with 5.96 is leading in the deaths per identified cases, followed by Mexico at 8.38% and Canada at 5.20% among the North American Countries.

Comparatively, the rate for Asian Countries is Turkey (5.23%) China (4.25%), Iran (11.92%), India (3.41%), Pakistan (2.71%), Sri Lanka (4.04%), Malaysia (3.20%), Philippines (5.60%), Indonesia (8.51%), Saudi Arabia (2.95%), UAE (0.56%), Bangladesh (6.43%), Nepal (0.00), Afghanistan (3.245%). 

Similarly, the probability of deaths of affected people in the African countries is also low with Algeria leading at 17.59% followed by Marrakesh (7.29%), Kenya (4.71%), Nigeria (3.77%), Jordan (3.15%), Ghana (2.45%), Niger (2.24%). Other countries have recorded higher death ratio because the number of cases identified is comparatively small.

Amongst the South American Countries, Argentina (10.03) is leading the probability of deaths followed by Brazil (6.85%), Chile (6.58%) and Peru (4.72%).

Two leading countries in Oceania which highest death rate is Australia (2.16%) and New Zealand (0.69%).

From the above, it can be safely concluded that Continents with higher incidence and probability of death are those with lower temperatures, viz. Europe and North America whereas Asian, South America, Africa and Ocenia continents where temperatures are warm to hot have recorded lower rate of spread of virus and all other related indicators.
In most African countries have low number of incidence of affected people and therefore the number is low but reflects a higher percentage, which can be misleading and incorrect to be able to arrive at some sort of conclusion as to the impact.

INDIA: The first case of COVID-19 was reported in India on 29th January, 2020 whereas Janata Curfew was implemented on 22nd March, 2020, which was after a wide gap of 54 days. Thereafter, the Government of India announced a 21-day compulsory lock-down to restrict the movement of people and asked people to maintain a social distancing. If the international flights would have been canceled just after the first reported case then there would not be any need of complete lock-down and cancellation of transportation system.By 22nd of March, 2020, there was a delay of 54 days and things had seemingly gone out of control. Seeing our fragmented public health system where infrastructure in the Public Hospitals including the number of beds, non-availability of testing kits, laboratories not equipped to conduct such tests, non-availability of medical professionals trained to handle such a situation, the complete lock-down for 21 days was only effective option before the government.

This 21 days lock-down was necessary because every epidemic has its peak and a subside period. COVID-19 virus is known to have an incubation period of 14 days and one extra week is required to know its pattern.

As far as spread of COVID -19 in India is concerned, it can be considered a mild attack. Out of total global deaths, 97% deaths have occurred in countries that lie between 30 degree to 50 degree Latitude in Northern hemisphere within temperature range of 5-10 degree C with dry air. The Incidence and Intensity of COVID-19 is very low in most of African, Asian, South American and Oceania countries. The number of Deaths in India due to COVID-19 is dismally low at 0.3 per million population which is considered very low in comparison to the deaths in other countries globally.

Of the 28 states, the top Seven States which have recorded the highest number of cases are Maharashtra (127), Madhya Pradesh (36), Gujarat (22), Delhi (19) and Tamil Nadu (10) covering almost 74% of the recorded deaths.

OBJECTIVE-2 : To study the effect of temperature on the spread and incidence in countries affected by Corona Virus.

Prominent Scientists and virologists affiliated with the Global Virus Network (GVN), have determined that temperature and latitude may have a direct link to the spread and seasonality of COVID-19.

“The statistics all show that they breed and survive longer when it’s cold and dry,” Myers said. “So, when it’s warmer and more humid and there’s a lot of sunshine, the statistics on all of the others show a virus is less lethal, it spreads less efficiently and less effectively among humans.” Dr. Joseph Fair, a virologist, epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist, suggested sunshine is a critical factor in subduing the virus.

 “Notably, during the same time, COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China,” the paper notes. “The number of patients and reported deaths in Southeast Asia is much less when compared to more temperate regions noted ... The association between temperature in the cities affected with COVID-19 deserves special attention.” 

Some have suggested the possibility that weather factors might affect the virus – particularly the intensity and amount of hours of sunshine as well as heat and humidity. “Obviously, the virus is something we’ve never dealt with before, but if we look at other viruses … they all had their peak during the cold season,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. 

“It really doesn’t have anything to do with the warmth, but it has to do with the length of the day and the exposure to sunlight, which inactivates the virus through UV light,

Research from a laboratory-grown copy of the corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes the COVID-19 illness shows that heat affects the virus and impacts its behavior, a top pathologist said new research has shown.  “In cold environments, there is longer virus survival than warm ones,” Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls told AccuWeather exclusively. 
New study says 'high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce' spread of COVID-19. Increased UV exposure may limit spread of new corona virus.

The following world temperature map clearly indicates the spread of the virus is restricted to only a limited handful of few countries located between 30-50 degree North Latitude and these are countries which have cold temperatures (5 to 10 degrees) with dry climate. These countries include USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, China, Iran, UK, Belgium, Netherlands.

Image provided by John Nicholls

“Temperature could significantly change COVID-19 transmission,” the authors note in the study. They also pointed out that the “virus is highly sensitive to high temperature.” “Most corona viruses become weak in high temperature and high humidity” - By SHOBHA WARRIER, March 28, 2020 09:00 IST

INDIA: A study conducted at MIT found that the spread of corona virus is much less in high temperatures and high humidity conditions.

Dr. Himanshu Reddy Dandu of the King George's Medical University in Lucknow has been leading his team in fighting the corona virus said “most of the corona viruses become weak in high temperatures and high humidity. That way, it will be helpful for India because by April, temperatures will be in the late 30s and early 40s (degrees centigrade). Therefore, if we are able to sustain these 21 days, and go to that temperature zone, it will be a way of nature protecting us.

OBJECTIVE-3 : To analyse the Impact of complete Lock-down in India on Deaths other than COVID-19.

A lot has been said about mortality rates in the context of the COVID-19 virus outbreak. We know that most of the cases of COVID-19 that resulted in fatalities belong to the older age group. The young generation are far more likely to be infected (as the carrier) but old people are more likely to die. But in case of lock-down due to Corona virus, many younger population are also losing their lives, not due to the virus but due to other factors.

Many people are dying due to non availability of food. According to the World Bank's 2015 estimates, India has 176 million people living in extreme poverty.  The economists Sandhya Krishnan and Neeraj Hatekar conclude that 600 million people, or more than half of India's population, belong to the middle class. According to Oxfam, India's top 1% of the population now holds 73% of the wealth while 670 million citizens, comprising the country's poorest half, saw their wealth rise by just 1%. In 2019 India has been ranked at 102nd place among 117 economies in the Global Hunger Index. India ranked below Pakistan (94), Bangladesh (88), Nepal (73) and Sri Lanka (66) among other South Asian countries. The “hunger” kills 821 people every day in our country. Government strong determination could save their lives but does not do so, because “hunger” does not kill the rich.

“What the people of the world want most and have always wanted is bread and peace." - Patricia Young, UN General Assembly.

“When India achieved independence, more than 50 years ago, the people of the country were much afflicted by endemic hunger. They still are." - - Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize Winner.

The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) said the lock-down to limit the COVID-19 transmission had "unintended consequences for the poorest" and "most vulnerable". It is necessary for government to ensure food, life essentials and medical facilities for rural population which is 66% of the total population. Rural India does not have good quality health infrastructure, medical services and is poorly staffed.

The Mortality rate of India at 7.3 per thousand population is already considered to be high and a cause of concern. As per mortality rate 27,536 people are dying per day in India. Major causes of deaths are many but for the purpose of this study, only those Diseases have been considered which will increase death due to Corona lock-down.
People might be dying in their locked-down homes due to Hunger, heart failure who might be unable to make it to a hospital, they might be escalating domestic violence cases, or people might be committing suicide in seclusion. The outcomes from cancelled surgeries, suspended clinical trials, disrupted maternity and neo-natal services, unfilled prescriptions and delayed chemotherapies, to name a few, are difficult to imagine.

Deaths due to Heart attack and stroke combined cover 26.6 percent of total deaths in India. In the cases of Heart attack and stroke, if not treated immediately and quickly, the heart muscle fails to pump and begins to die. Due to lock-down many of them would not be able to act quickly enough to make it to the hospital on time for help. When a heart attack happens, delay in treatment can be very deadly. Delay in Heart attack, stroke, maternal delivery, chronic kidney diseases will increase by at least 20% whereas infant mortality, deaths due to malaria, suicide, COPD, Tuberculosis, malignant and other tumors will increase by a minimum 10% while deaths by Hunger will increase at least 25%.

The table below is indicative of the additional deaths that may occur due to lack of access to medical care or non-medical causes. This is increasing the burden of death due to the COVID19 pandemic.

Findings and Conclusions:

1.   COVID19 has so far spread in 210 countries and territories.

2.   Till 12th April, 2020, 51 countries have recorded no deaths whereas 55 countries have reported a total of 127 deaths not exceeding 5 in number.

3.   Between 197 countries, the total number of deaths in the range of 0 to 1000 deaths is 8541.

4.   Alarmingly, a total of 13 countries combined have recorded total 99173 deaths (91.54%)

5.   Around 97% of the total deaths lie between 30o to 50o Latitude in the Northern Hemisphere.

6.   Most of the African, South American, Asian or Occenia Continents have mild or less lethal spread of the COVID19 mainly because the warm climate.

7.   Data of deaths in different countries clearly shows that there is a very strong relation between the temperature and total deaths occurring in specific countries.

8.   The probability of deaths occurring all over the world is 9 persons per 100 patients with COVID19 positive cases whereas it is around 15 person in Italy, Spain, UK, Belgium, Netherland. 

9.   In India, the probability of deaths per 100 confirmed patients however, is merely 3.41%. Similarly, neighbouring Pakistan is also in close range with 2.71 deaths per 100 patients.  China with highest number of deaths recorded in Asia at 3339 also has a lower death probability at 4.25%.

10.   It is observed that the pattern of spread of COVID19 in different continents is not uniform as also the rate of incidence and mortality.

11.   There appears to be a strong affect on the survival of the corona virus, given that it is spread rapidly in countries and cities which have seen harsh winter with low temperatures starting from November 2019 till March 31, 2020.

12.   In comparison to the deaths recorded in India so far, there are additional 3116.6 deaths per day due various other causes (Refer to Table No.4) which is an additional burden not considered but is much higher than deaths due to COVID19 recorded so far. If this is extrapolated to include the 41 days of lock-down, then the total number of deaths due to causes other than COVID19 will be a whopping 127780.6 deaths. Of this, Ischemic Heart Disease and deaths due to stroke alone will account for 58592 deaths, followed by Hunger which will account for 8210 deaths. Maternal deaths by itself will be 808 which will not include the unborn child. 

13.   It is estimated that more than 1 Lakh citizens will be injured or succumb to injuries due to police lathi-charge or mobbing during the lock-down enforcement because they will venture out in search of food supplies, for work, to beg or violating the lock-down laws.

14. There are many other countries where the incidence of COVID19 is high but despite which a complete lock-down has not been imposed. There are countries with same socio- economic and climate condition have not much incidence as well as deaths without locked down.

Recommendations:

1.   The states and their districts where the COVID19 numbers are significantly lower, the lock-down should be relaxed in a phased manner after as soon as possible to minimize the casualties on account of other health reasons and inaccessibility to medical facilities.  

2.   After the withdrawal of the lock-down, the fear amongst people about catching COVID19 will reduce and people will start moving out of their homes to re-start their business, agricultural activity and people in rural areas will should start getting employment opportunities under various government schemes like MNREGA. Projects under MNREGA should be expanded. Payments to those covered under this scheme should be prompt so that there is no financial distress.

3.   People will be able to go in search of food and other commodities as soon as the opening of highways and movement of people and goods is eased and it will lead to ease in supply of various items of consumption. This has to be monitored so that there are no delays and should be managed well.

4.   The Indian Railways and State Transport Corporations should operate non-air conditioned trains within such states where incidence is low to enable labourer’s and workforce to travel in search of work or go to their factories and office. Fresh tickets shoul be issue and all other existing travel passes should be suspended. Issual of new tickets should be limited so that there is no crowding which can lead to community spread of the virus. Movement of such trains should be restricted within 50 kms. of the state border if incidence of disease is high in that state. This will also enable them to start the wheel of economy. International Flights from airports in states where lock-down has been lifted, may be restricted to countries with very minimal casualties.

5.   Provision of Compensation to deceased due to COVID19 and other causes on account of lock-down.   It is recommended that a dedicated helpline be started at each state to enable people needing help for getting transportation to the nearest and best medical facilities so that avoidable deaths can be minimised. 

6. People who have lost or will lose lives during the lock-down process must receive adequate compensation so that families do not fall apart and they can rebuild their lives to overcome their sorrow and do not have to be dependent on others or sink under the burden of impoverishment and deprivation. The reimbursement has to be quick and free from bureaucratic red-tape.

About the Authors:

 Dr. Abu Altamash Faizi holds a Ph.D. in Population Sciences from the International Institute of Population Sciences, Deonar, Mumbai and is an alumni of Aligarh Muslim University. He has been associated with UNICEF and Internationally acclaimed Non-Government Organisations. He has held the position of the State Head for Jammu & Kashmir of National Rural Heath Mission (NRHM) of the Government of India. He has earlier worked extensively on community based health projects with Aga Khan Health Service, India, a part of an International group of non-denominational organisations, i.e. the Aga Khan Development Network, specialising in Maternal & Child Health, HIV/AIDS, Mental Health. He was also a member the Scientific Advisory Committee of Prince Aly Khan Hospital.

Mr. Sarfaraz Lakhani has a Post-Graduate Masters Degree in Human Resources Management with Interest in Community Based Health Care Management, Community Based Health and Education Management, and Community Based Disaster Risk Management, Disaster Intervention. He has also been associated with one of the largest International Non-Government Organisation and is actively involved in social development through social-change initiatives with special focus on the elderly. He has gained deep insights in primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare during his work related to Quality Accreditation of healthcare providers. As a trainer, he has trained thousands of students and professionals and given motivational lectures. He has worked at the International level and brings that sense of professionalism, planning and execution to the projects he is involved with. He has been a management consultant to many new start-ups and a Mentor to many a students.

Sources and References:

1.      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
2.      https://www.statista.com/chart/21240/enforced-covid-19-lockdowns-by-people-affected-per-country/
3.      https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/
4.      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States#/media/File:1999-_Gun-related_deaths_USA.png
5.      https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/home-and-community/safety-topics/guns/data-details/
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7.      https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/experts-skeptical-that-warm-weather-will-slow-covid-19-outbreak/699704
8.      https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/whats-the-latest-on-coronavirus/691967
9.      https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/new-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-covid-19/703418
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11.   https://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/guangzhou/102255/weather-forecast/102255
12.   https://medium.com/@ra.hobday/coronavirus-and-the-sun-a-lesson-from-the-1918-influenza-pandemic-509151dc8065
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15.   https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074131/coronavirus-highly-sensitive-high-temperatures-dont-bank-summer