By Dr. Sanjay Pattiwar
Ex. Add. Commissioner,
Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation (NMMC),
National Level Monitor, Health Mission NHSRC, Government of India, New Delhi.
Consultant, Tata
Trust Mumbai
and

By
Dr. P. Sekhar,
Chairman of Global Smart Cities Panel,
Micro Tech Global Foundation
Introduction
We are facing a global health crisis
unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations — one that is killing
people, spreading human suffering, and upending people’s lives. But this is much more than a health crisis. It
is a human, economic and social crisis. The
Novel corona virus disease (COVID-19), which has been characterized as a
pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), is attacking societies at
their core. Through these article
strategies to fast track the impact of COVID 19 back to growth and development
through the Doctrine of Secured Governance.
Since the COVID-19 outbreak
was first diagnosed, it has spread to over 190 countries in the world. The pandemic is having a noticeable impact on
global economic growth. Estimates so far
indicate the virus could trim global economic growth by as much as 2.0% per
month if current conditions persist. Global
trade could also fall by 13% to 32%, depending on the depth and extent of the
global economic downturn.
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| Source: Unknown |
After understanding the magnitude of
the attack which is rightly called World War III all authorities first saving
humans and are engaging in an on-going series of interventions in financial
markets and national governments are announcing spending initiatives to stimulate
their economies. International
organizations are also taking steps to provide loans and other financial
assistance to countries in need. These
and other actions have been labelled “unprecedented,” a term that has been used
frequently to describe the pandemic and the policy responses.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
estimated that government spending and revenue measures to sustain economic
activity adopted through mid-April 2020 amounted to US$3.3 trillion and that
loans, equity injections and guarantees totalled an additional US$4.5 trillion.
As a result, the IMF estimates that the
increase in borrowing by governments globally will rise from 3.7% of global
gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 9.9% in 2020, as indicated in below
image.
Among developed economies, the
fiscal balance to GDP ratio is projected to rise from 3.0% in 2019 to 10.7% in
2020; the ratio for the United States is projected to rise from 5.8% to 15.7%. For developing economies, the fiscal balance
to GDP ratio is projected to rise from 4.8% to 9.1%. According to the IMF, France, Germany, Italy,
Japan, and the United Kingdom have each announced public sector support
measures totalling more than 10% of their annual GDP.
International Monetary Fund
(IMF) Projected Government Fiscal Balances Relative to GDP (In % shares of
Gross Domestic Product).
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| Source: Unknown |
The
government of India has already taken few measures and is planning to announce
a stimulus package which would help India to tied over this crisis. Initially, the economic effects of the virus
were expected to be short-term supply issues as factory output fell because
workers were quarantined to reduce the spread of the virus through social interaction.
The drop in economic activity, initially
in China, has had international repercussions as firms experienced delays in
supplies of intermediate and finished goods through supply chains.
Concerns are growing, however, that the
virus-related supply shock is creating more prolonged and wide-ranging demand
shocks as reduced activity by consumers and businesses lead to a lower rate of
economic growth. As demand shocks
unfold, businesses experience reduced activity and profits and potentially
escalating and binding credit and liquidity constraints.
While manufacturing firms are experiencing
supply chain shocks, reduced consumer activity through social distancing is
affecting the services sector of the economy. In this environment, manufacturing and service
firms are hoarding cash, which affects market liquidity. In response, central banks have lowered
interest rates where possible and expanded lending facilities to provide
liquidity to financial markets and to firms potentially facing insolvency.
COVID 19 Impacts in Rural India
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought
the entire nation to a halt. Health
officials and medical professionals are struggling with containing the disease,
and testing and treating affected people. The risk of spread in rural areas is heightened.
This is due to a number of factors,
including lack of awareness, a limited supply of clean water, low levels of
nutrition, and most importantly, ill-equipped and insufficient public health
centres and district hospitals. The
informal industry in cities being badly affected has resulted in loss of rural
income because a significant proportion of rural household incomes come from
migration and daily-wage labourers. What’s
more, massive layoffs and lack of relief measures are pushing migrants to
return to their villages, which would increase the risk of the spread of the
virus.
Necessary of Health Education
Health emergencies put health
systems and their ability to deliver health care services under strain. Currently, health care services in Asian
Region are being confronted with increased demand generated by the COVID-19
outbreak. To minimize the consequences
of disruptions to the delivery of essential health care services, national
health authorities and health service planners will need to ensure dedicated
planning structures are in place, rural population risks are stratified,
delivery settings/platforms and provider arrangements are modified or
reconfigured, and financial and physical resources are made available
accordingly.
As you know a new respiratory
disease called COVID-19 is spreading across the world. India has also reported cases from states and
the government is trying to contain the spread of the disease. As an important primary healthcare worker,
play a major role in preventing its spread. Training the entire health workforce is
essential in recognizing and managing the symptoms of COVID-19 and repurposing
the workforce for priority services – both for the COVID-19 response and to
support essential health care services – will be critical areas that will need
attention. It is an effort to promote
awareness on the pandemic and the need to take precautions for common people,
which will prevent the disease spread in community at lower level, by
decentralizing can minimise the burden on hospitals.
COVID 19 Impacts in Urban India
Mobility is an essential
part of urban life. People travel for
various reasons, such as going to work, educational institutions, recreation
and shopping. Asian cities offer diverse
means of commuting: walking, cycling, motorcycles, public and mass transport,
micro-mobility, para-transit, private cars, public taxis and ride hailing
systems. On the other hand, we have seen
improvement in air quality and reductions in CO2 emissions due to the decrease
in transport activity. But these are short-term gains and air pollution and
emissions are expected rise again once the situation is resolved.
The novel corona virus (COVID-19) crisis in
India may disproportionately hurt millions of urban poor living in slums across
major cities. Over 65 million or 22% of
India’s urban population lives in urban slums, which are characterized by acute
poverty, over-crowding, unhealthy living conditions, and a weak urban public
health setup. A majority of the families
living in slums are migrant workers who living under or near poverty may not
have disposable cash to stockpile food or basic necessities for a more than 5
weeks lockdown, leaving them vulnerable to hunger, malnutrition, and increasing
their vulnerability to the virus.
A
potential outmigration of the urban poor back to the villages may also
exacerbate the extent of the outbreak in India. The implications of a Covid-19 outbreak in the
urban slums can be disastrous for the urban poor and the public health setup. In the absence of affordable and quality
public healthcare, families living in slums run the risk of deep
impoverishment, disease, and death. On
the other hand, the public health system runs a high risk of getting overrun by
patients. The health systems are
experiencing increasing challenges in absorbing the impact of the disease,
flattening the curve of virus expansion is critical to reduce the pressure on
hospitals.
The pandemic is likely to impact the
country’s economy through the following four vectors
A. Supply disruptions:
• Dependence on China for imports of
raw and intermediate materials;
• Higher input prices and reduced
profitability, leading to decline in capacity building;
• Supply – side disruptions
may be temporary as China revives production units.
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| Source: Unknown |
B. Global & Domestic Demand:
• Consumer spending to take a hit
due to movement restrictions and fear of falling sick;
• Reduced wealth effect due to
falling share prices.
• Hospitality and aviation sectors
are impacted the most at a short span of time;
• Low profitability and production
disruptions impact business sentiments and investments;
• Loss of employment, especially in
the informal sector and for contractual workers, reduces consumer spending;
• Demand in top few export
destinations (China, the United States, and Europe) accounting for 40% of
India’s export is severely hit.
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Source: Unknown
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C. Stress on banking and financial
sectors and parameters
Banks:
• Exposure to stressed industries
and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs);
• Rising consumer loan default
because of high unemployment and household leverage;
• Stress on banks impact credit
growth.
Capital Market and financial
parameters
• The stock market has fallen 30%
since pandemic started spreading in the west;
• A sharp depreciation of rupee
against the dollar worsens trade deficit as exports contribution to GDP is low;
• Rising bond yields make
borrowing more expensive, thereby reducing bank margins.
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Source: Unknown
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D. Falling Oil Prices
• Oil prices have fallen sharply.
Brent crude oil fell from US$68.5 per barrel on 3rd January to US$28.2 per
barrel on 20th March.
• Lower Oil prices could be a boon
for India’s twin deficit (the fiscal and current account);
• Gives policymakers some headroom
to act;
• The rupee depreciation may
partially offset the gains. Rupee has depreciated from INR. 71.7 per US$ on 3
January to INR. 75 per US$ on 20th March.
How best to fight the Economic
Impact of the COVID 19 Pandemic?
We know that nations need a healthy
population to prosper. Stepping up investment in public healthcare is pivotal
to sustaining India’s economic growth. Government
has announced a series of measures including distribution of essential
commodities, actual cash and incentives which should be through state and
central PSUs to make then long term benefit to the beneficiaries. These enterprises should be incentivised
through policy measures of giving them operational benefits including extra FSI
and preferences with commitments to long term growth.
Many Global companies want to set up base in
India and they should play a catalytic role for their successful expansion in
India. The healthcare access to all
patients should be complemented by setting up manufacturing systems in the
upcoming Smart cities which should be Hubs for development. Secured Governance
strategy designed to minimise the gap of Healthcare infrastructure of the
social sector and promote private participation in infrastructure development. The value and valuation strategy offers
sophisticated funding mechanism and tailored to the economic growth and
generate huge employment opportunity.
The Secured Governance strategy
designed to help government through the private & foreign sector
investment, and non-profit organisation when to open their economies, and the
second outlines an approach for how to do so in this COVID – 19 pestilence
period. This is a novel strategy that
consists in promoting infrastructure (Healthcare HUB) development that
integrated with all key supporting sectors such as transport, power, telecom,
banking, education, etc.
We all know when development takes
place there is valuation in property. Who
benefits from this? More often than not
it is incidental and taken advantage of by land and property sharks. Imagine a model where this valuation can be
ploughed back into the project and also benefit the people around.
First, the development cost of the Healthcare
HUB is reduced, and can actually be at negligible cost to the government if
carefully planned. Next, the population
sees it as benefitting them and so they participate more enthusiastically,
helping with early completion of the project rather than being an impediment. The strategy could provide a generic pathway
to capture a part of the increased value by investment made by private
stakeholders and helps repayment of loan for infrastructure (HUB) development. This mechanism could help to bridge the gap of
healthcare population ratio drastically and could provide effective control of
COVID - 19 spread and public – health response in this critical time.
India needs to be becoming a major
international HUB for the global healthcare industry. It is already home to the
world’s largest medical tourism zone. The
HUBs would stimulate private investment in new developments from domestic and
international players, Research & Development in medical field, advanced
technology zone including global University for Healthcare sector and its focus
on becoming a global medical tourism HUB.
The HUB of a diverse healthcare economy that
includes the life sciences and a digital health cluster that leverages the
strong private investment/venture capital landscape, major academic medical
centers, institutions of higher learning and a highly skilled and educated
workforce to meet the shortage of healthcare workers in India.
Around 700+ Mini medical HUBs with 50 bed
facilities and more than 10,000 nano medical HUBs need to be developed in all
the districts of India. Rural people
could get easy access in this healthcare mini and nano HUB. There could be a strong commitment from both
the public and private sectors. Players
from both sides are working together and investing to continue building an
ecosystem that fuels innovation in the life sciences and digital health
industries.
The healthcare innovations and
unprecedented public-private support could boost the healthcare economy in
India and lead the sustainable economic growth in the post COVID - 19. With this India could have quick regrouping of
its growth strategies and cater to the Global expectations to War to victory
through good leadership skills.
Article contributed by Dr. Sanjay Pattiwar
SARFARAZ LAKHANI
CALIBRE CREATORS
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